Consequences
GS Don Morris, Ph.D.
It is not new to anyone that behavior has consequences. A spectrum of possibilities exists for these consequences with multiple outcomes. If one wants to avoid a negative consequence it is imperative that an individual or a group of people carefully think through each and every action in anticipation of all probable outcomes and their impact upon people and the community. This could not be truer when applied to the world stage. The "deal" recently agreed to with Iran by the leading Western powers poses major difficulties for the entire international arena in the near and long term.
In the near term Iran has now been granted permission to become part of the world's nuclear community-nothing can/will stop this now. We have effectively conceded Iran's right to enrich uranium and furthermore we have agreed to let her do so forever. As of early 2013 Iran has 1000 of 3000 new-generation centrifuges installed which enables faster enrichment of uranium. In addition, Arak is not going to be dismantled and has been allowed to continue enriching uranium to 3.5 % purity. Her current stockpile of "weaponized" high-rich uranium is only going to be treated chemically to make it inoperative for the moment and she does keep this material that can easily and quickly be "weaponized." Rather than go on and on about these important details, I refer you to Dyer's* article for more substantive details. My point has been made, Iran lost nothing, and the West lost it all.
We shall never regain any international support for sanctions again. We lost this leverage and are foolish and naïve to believe we would ever be able to find this support again. Why? First, the people of Iran have been hurting economically, fiscally and psychologically for some time. The only reason Iran came to the table to "negotiate" was it feared a popular rebellion by its people. Second, the EU has too much business it has regained by opening up the Iranian market again. Up to 10% of Iran's monies came from the EU, now not only will business be re-stored but also oil and its price to EU countries improve significantly. The EU has lost all motivation to ever restart sanctions-they can't afford to at this time. Thus, the EU sold its "economic soul" to the devil.
Why do I characterize Iran in such a manner? Without question Iran is the world's leader in supporting, funding, training, supplying terrorism worldwide. They are responsible for the deaths and maiming of hundreds of thousands of people worldwide, e.g., Syria, Hizzbollah, Hamas to identify but a few. An uptick in Sunni-Shia violence, already at high numbers begins immediately. The actions taken some days ago only strengthen Iran's resolve. Its citizens will reap, in the short term, the infusion of 8 billion dollars and the untold millions businesses will now acquire-food and daily lifestyle goods return to the shelves and this will tap down any immediate internal resistance. Mullahs have already boasted their victory over the West perhaps this has not been reported beyond this part of the world. This in turn reinforces their behavior. Just as a child who is caught misbehaving but then is allowed to "get away with it"; the consequence reinforces the same ongoing behavior. The West has made this fatal mistake.
In addition the state funded terrorists around the world will amp up their attacks as they, too, have become emboldened by the West's "disintegration" in actions and in their view in their values. This "deal" has been like a booster shot of motivation for the spread of Islam worldwide-you will see increased activity to infuse Islam into more and more of the Western world, especially in the USA. This is yet another consequence of one's actions.
In the longer term, be prepared for Iran to become an "exporter" of nuclear weapons. This will happen and is part of their plan. The weapons will come in the form of briefcase to missile bombs. Imagine Hizzbollah, Hamas, and dozens of other terrorist groups walking around with this capability-have you heard extortion or blackmail? I am not saying the weapons will be used but imagine the leverage these groups will now have to promote their agenda.
Mind you other ME countries are not going to wait around without their own nuclear weapons. Saudi Arabia has already indicated they will join this illustrious group of owners and they will be followed by other oil-rich ME countries who fear Iran. This consequence changes the dynamic of the entire ME and the economy of the world. Unless the USA moves rapidly now toward energy independence its economy will take a dramatic nosedive. As it is now, the EU, promoters of this "deal" will reap the outcome of higher oil prices. The EU is not now nor in the foreseeable future looking to be energy independent and its economy will nosedive causing a rift in the USA economy. China and India will turn, in part, to other energy producing countries, including Israel. China will increase its proportion of GDP to military build up in anticipation of these consequences.
The outcomes for Israel are obvious. We will, by necessity, have to increase our defense mechanisms as well as our military offensive capabilities. This will not just be in armaments. We must increase the velocity of energy independence in our off shore gas and oil fields. This activity will spawn a new wave of naval confrontations with our enemies who do not want us to reach our energy potential.
Our enemies see that the EU has for all intensive purposes abandoned us and will amp up the demonization of Israel and see this as an opportunity to turn up the legal heat. Think Hague. The USA will not support our positions regarding the "Palestinians" and unless we have courageous leaders we may yield to the increasing pressure and extortion. I shall expand these ideas in a forth-coming article.
You are such a pessimist Don, none of this will happen. You are painting a worst-case picture and the world will not allow it to happen. Do you see any other possible outcomes? My response may be surprising; my answer is yes-however, certain actions must occur soon.
End Notes
J. Dyer http://theoptimisticconservative.wordpress.com/2013/11/26/the-deal-that-will-launch-a-thousand-attack-sorties-part-1/