Too weak to govern-use the weakness as a weapon-it works in the West!

GS Don Morris, Ph.D.

The home of the USA Naval Academy, Annapolis Maryland will host a Peace Conference next month-November, 2007. Let's tell the truth to the Western public-this is America's conference-neither Israel nor Abbas and his government demanded that it take place nor is it the result of the two combatants 40 year struggle finally emerging with a winner. No, Mr. Bush and company, under scrutiny by Arab countries, trying to put forth a controlled face in the Middle East and in the critical start up run to the next White House figured that a Peace Conference would shift the world's attention off of them and onto these combatants. Sure enough the media and pundits and special interest groups are in the process of doing this-simply watch any international news program or read any newspaper.

The conditions for long-term success are not present. The theme of the Conference has not been clearly defined, expected outcomes have not been stated, and you have reluctant participants lead by weak leaders. However, the USA can say it has stepped forward again to provide the necessary leadership and take back some control of the Middle East situation thus diminishing, for the moment, Russia's surge back into the sphere of ME influence. Arab countries can use the next several weeks to demean and invalidate Israel and appear united against their common enemy. Curiously, not one of these Arab countries will offer to host reconciliation talks between Fatah and Hamas. The rants will amp up during the coming days and weeks in the run up to the Annapolis meeting thus the USA has provided Israel's enemies with a world stage to perform on and has given legitimacy for such shouts as it continues to demand that Israel make concession after concession to Abbas. Mr. Abbas will harden his demands and use the mantra of victim-hood to force Israel to relax its position-this will occur beginning this week. Israeli Intelligence has said:

Palestinian Authority would refuse to make any concessions or gestures that would ensure a successful summit in Annapolis, Md. Instead, the sources said the Israeli community has assessed that PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas regarded the summit as a means to bring massive international pressure on Israel to agree to a unilateral withdrawal from virtually the entire West Bank. "Abbas is incapable of negotiating, let alone making concessions," an intelligence source said. "His belief is that there will not be any demands made of him.¹

When you have no control in your government and you are basically a weak person, you have but one strategy to employ in order to remain in power. What do you do? Simple, use tactic #1 in your playbook feign victim-hood, again. Camouflage this tactic by using language that sounds empowering-seek support (not aide, not help) for your requests-this is the psycho-political talk that outsiders love to hear. This talk allows us to become partners against the evildoers and real terrorists who are trying to sabotage the conference. Who wouldn't respond favorably to this request? Recruit your Arab and Western allies to force Israel to agree to a unilateral withdrawal from the West Bank; demand even more massive prisoner releases; and show how strong you are by once again demanding a return to the 1967 green line aka official borders. Demand the establishment of a state in the year 2008-without having to make any/nada/one concession.

By issuing these statements and demands you are asking the Israeli government and the Israeli people to stand down. You are asking us to ignore all the intelligence our security communities have provided. They have told us:

Abbas is incapable of negotiating, let alone make concessions
Military intelligence has warned that the PA was incapable of issuing or honoring any commitments, particularly in the area of counter-insurgency cooperation.¹
They are incapable of controlling cities in Judea and Samaria [West Bank]
The Fatah military wing is not under Abbas's control
The PA has submitted a series of demands for the United States to pressure Israel over the next few weeks-the pressure will also be demonstrated through the media
Fatah has been losing power to Hamas in the West Bank while the movement led by Abbas has been neutralized in the Gaza Strip

This is truly a man without power. However, Mr. Bush and company plus the other Western countries that have made the commitment to prop up Abbas are feeling another kind of pressure. How long they will continue to bet on a broken down horse is any one's guess. They can leverage Israel to the hilt and I expect them to do so. Will the Olmert government have the courage to resist? How much will they yield to and will the Israeli citizenry tolerate this unfair ceaseless set of unreasonable demands? This will become known in the next month. As long as Abbas and his Fatah following continue to convince the west that we, the Palestinians have nothing more to give the demands upon us in Israel will only escalate. The politically correct action for the USA is to lean upon its only true ME ally. Mr. Bush et al. believes this helps their image in the Arab world (it does not) and when you hold financial strings controlled by Washington DC you have control-Israel finds itself today in the corner.²

To counter act what is ahead for Israel, several actions must concomitantly begin. In the diaspora, individuals and groups should begin putting Abbas' history and record online, repeat the messages time after time. Invalidate the claim that Fatah and Abbas are moderate-they are secular versions of Hamas. Demonstrate promises made and none kept. Additionally the rights of Israel to the disputed territories remains valid today as it did 40 years ago. Spell this out multiple times every week. Distinguish UN 242 and 194 from one another and state that 194 is not now nor was it ever binding-it basically was a group collective thought process-stop using it as some kind of legal tender. Finally, tell the story of Israel from 1967 to the present. The Israeli government and associated Israeli-based agencies should be making similar statements on every media outlet serving this part of the world today. In addition the government should state publicly that land for peace, as a negotiation tool is over, dead and no longer an option. It is a failed 40-year strategy. Furthermore, we ask for the following concessions to be made on our behalf as a sign of good faith: within 72 hours allow the International Red Cross and one Israeli official to visit our three most recently kidnapped soldiers; allow unfettered access to the Temple Mount for 7 consecutive days; identify infrastructure needs and create a 5- year priority list to resolve the issues and finally Mr. Abbas should appear upon Israeli television outlining his steps to curb violence in Judea and Samaria.

My point is this. Israel is the group always asked to make concessions and then held accountable for these actions. The Palestinians are told what to do but never held to comply with the consequences of failure. Israel has the opportunity to shift from a concessions based strategy to a rights-based strategy and it is time to so launch.³ I am awaiting the proverbial line in the sand to be drawn-to date, the current Israeli leadership appears to have a broken drawing arm.

Notes

Dysfunctional Palestinian government seen pressing for more Israeli concessions, World Tribune October 12, 2007, http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2007/me_israel_10_12.asp
GS Don Morris, PhD., Political Correctness-Part 2, http://docstalk.blogspot.com/, 2007
Dan Diker, Why Israel Must Now Move From Concessions-Based Diplomacy To Rights-Based Diplomacy, Jerusalem Perspectives, July 2007